大萧条：修订间差异

经济历史学家常将大萧条的开始定位在1929年10月29日美国股市的突然崩盘，即[[黑色星期二]]；<ref name=Britannica>[http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/243118/Great-Depression Great Depression] {{Wayback|url=http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/243118/Great-Depression |date=20150509121741 }}, Encyclopædia Britannica</ref>有的则表示反对，认为股市崩盘本身只是一个现象，而不是單純的導火線。<ref name="Frank_Bernanke"/><ref>[http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_TGVSDT Economics focus: The Great Depression] {{Wayback|url=http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_TGVSDT |date=20081211172738 }} ''The Economist''</ref>

美联储不作为的一个原因是监管。在此期间，美联储提供的信用额度被《联邦储备条例》（''Federal Reserve Act''）制约，要求联邦储备券背后应有40%的黄金支持。在二十世纪20年代末，美联储几乎在信用额度上达到了持有黄金的许可上限。这个信用额度是美联储即期票据的一种形式。<ref name="text">Freidel, ''Franklin D. Roosevelt: Launching the New Deal''（1973）ch 19; [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=14611&st=&st1= text] {{WebCite|url=https://www.webcitation.org/6150Y3jax?url=http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=14611 |date=20110820132556 |dateformat=iso }}</ref>

美国经济扩张几乎在绝大部分的罗斯福执政期得以持续（以及迫使其中断的1937年经济衰退），而经济学界对于其驱动力还未能达成共识。大多数经济学家普遍认为，罗斯福的“新政”尽管不够积极强硬，不能带领经济完全走出衰退，但亦功不可没得加速甚至是引起了复苏。一些经济学家也呼吁人们关注罗斯福的言行预示的通货再膨胀和名义利率的上升，这些都带来了积极的效果。<ref>Gauti B. Eggertsson, "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression," ''American Economic Review'' 98, No. 4（Sep 2008）: 1476–1516;</ref><ref>"Was the New Deal Contractionary?" [[Federal Reserve Bank of New York]] Staff Report 264, Oct 2006, [http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr264.html Gauti B. Eggertsson] {{Wayback|url=http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr264.html |date=20141026041846 }}</ref>正是中止这些通货再膨胀政策导致了1937年的经济中断衰退<ref>"The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," ''Monetary and Economic Studies'' 24, No. S-1（Dec 2006）, [http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/english/publication/mes/2006/abst/me24-s1-8.html Boj.or.jp] {{Wayback|url=http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/english/publication/mes/2006/abst/me24-s1-8.html |date=20150811112759 }}</ref><ref>Gauti B. Eggertsson, "A Reply to Steven Horwitz's Commentary on 'Great Expectations and the End of the Great Depression,'" ''Econ Journal Watch'' 7（3）, 197–204, September 2010 [http://econjwatch.org/articles/a-reply-to-steven-horwitz-s-commentary-on-great-expectations-and-the-end-of-the-depression-] {{Wayback|url=http://econjwatch.org/articles/a-reply-to-steven-horwitz-s-commentary-on-great-expectations-and-the-end-of-the-depression- |date=20141020061443 }}</ref>1935年银行法，可以算作是一个促进了通货再膨胀的有效政策，它大幅提高了存款准备金率，导致了能阻挠经济复苏的货币紧缩。<ref>Steven Horwitz, "Unfortunately Unfamiliar with Robert Higgs and Others: A Rejoinder to Gauti Eggertsson on the 1930s," ''Econ Journal Watch'' 8（1）, 2, January 2011. [http://econjwatch.org/articles/unfortunately-unfamiliar-with-robert-higgs-and-others-a-rejoinder-to-gauti-eggertsson-on-the-1930s] {{Wayback|url=http://econjwatch.org/articles/unfortunately-unfamiliar-with-robert-higgs-and-others-a-rejoinder-to-gauti-eggertsson-on-the-1930s |date=20141020061549 }}</ref>美国的国内生产总值于1938年重回上升趋势。

克里斯蒂娜·罗默认为，源源不断的国际黄金流入促进了货币供应量的增长，成为美国经济复苏的重要源头，而经济几乎未出现自我纠正的迹象。黄金的流入一部分是由于美元贬值，一部分则是由于欧洲政治局势的恶化。<ref>Romer, Christina D., "What Ended the Great Depression", ''Journal of Economic History'', December 1992, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. 757–784 {{cite web |url=http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~cromer/What%20Ended%20the%20Great%20Depression.pdf |title=存档副本 |accessdate=2013-01-08 |deadurl=yes |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20130117093624/http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~cromer/What%20Ended%20the%20Great%20Depression.pdf |archivedate=2013-01-17 }} ''"monetary development were crucial to the recovery implies that self-correction played little role in the growth of real output"''</ref>在《美国货币史》中，作者米尔顿·弗里德曼和安娜J·施瓦茨也将复苏归功于货币性因素，并认为，不善的联邦储备系统拖缓了经济复苏。现任联邦储备局主席本·伯南克也对货币性因素在全球经济衰退和最终复苏中发挥的重要作用持认同态度。<ref>Ben Bernanke. ''Essays on the Great Depression''. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-01698-6. p. 7</ref>他还认识到了制度性因素發挥强而有力的作用，特别是金融体系的重建和重组，<ref>Ben S. Bernanke, "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propaga-tion of the Great Depression," ''The American Economic Review 73'', No. 3（Jun 1983）: 257–76, available from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank collection at [http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication-issue/?id=59238 Stlouisfed.org] {{Wayback|url=http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication-issue/?id=59238 |date=20140904215615 }}</ref>并指出需以国际视角来审视大萧条。<ref>{{cite web |url=http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication-issue/?id=59250 |title=Ben S. Bernanke, "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," ''Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking'' 27, No. 1（February 1995）: 1–28 |publisher=Fraser.stlouisfed.org |date= |accessdate=2010-09-04 |archive-date=2014-04-19 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140419015020/http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication-issue/?id=59250 |dead-url=no }}</ref>

一些经济研究表明，正如经济衰退是由于[[金本位|金本位制]]的僵化而蔓延全球，正是暂停黄金兑换（或是对黄金形式的货币的贬值）使得经济复苏成为可能。<ref>{{cite encyclopedia |last=Bordo |first=Michael D. |editor=[[David R. Henderson]] |encyclopedia=[[Concise Encyclopedia of Economics]] |title=Gold Standard |url=http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html |year=2008 |edition=2nd |publisher=[[Library of Economics and Liberty]] |location=Indianapolis |isbn=978-0865976658 |oclc=237794267 |access-date=2014-10-14 |archive-date=2010-10-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101005063134/http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html |dead-url=no }}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|title= Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939|url= https://archive.org/details/goldenfettersgol00eich|authorlink=Barry Eichengreen |first=Barry|last=Eichengreen|publisher=Oxford University Press|location=New York|year=1992|isbn= 0-19-506431-3|ref=harv|postscript=<!--None-->}}</ref><ref>Eggertson, Gauti. "A Reply to Steven Horwitz's Commentary on "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression". ''Econ Journal Watch'' 7（3）: pp 197–204. [http://econjwatch.org/issues/volume-7-issue-3-september-2010] {{Wayback|url=http://econjwatch.org/issues/volume-7-issue-3-september-2010 |date=20180424184930 }}</ref>

导致二战爆发的重整军备政策，却在1937至1939年间帮助刺激了欧洲经济。到1937年，英国的失业人口已经下降至150万。1939年战争爆发后的军队兵力动员很好的解决了失业问题。<ref name="Great Depression and World War II">[http://memory.loc.gov/learn/features/timeline/depwwii/depwar.html Great Depression and World War II] {{Wayback|url=http://memory.loc.gov/learn/features/timeline/depwwii/depwar.html |date=20110629195543 }}. ''The Library of Congress''.</ref>

美国在1941年加入二战后，终于得以从大萧条的残余影响中解脱，美国失业率也下降到10％以下。<ref name="Depression & World War II">[http://www.americaslibrary.gov/cgi-bin/page.cgi/jb/wwii Depression & WWII] {{Wayback|url=http://www.americaslibrary.gov/cgi-bin/page.cgi/jb/wwii |date=20090625204217 }}. Americaslibrary.gov.</ref>美国庞大的战争开支增加了一倍的经济增长率，对大萧条而言，也许是在表面上对经济的废墟的掩盖，也许是在实质上彻底画上了句号。商人们忽略掉堆积的国债和沉重的新税，重振旗鼓，充分利用丰厚的政府订单，创造更大的经济利益。

[[File:Bonnieclyde f.jpg|缩略图|180px|在大萧条期间，银行家们声名狼藉，以至于江湖大盗如[[邦妮和克萊德]]成为了传奇英雄。<ref>[http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-11-03-economy-depression-recession_N.htm Is today's economic crisis another Great Depression?] {{Wayback|url=http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-11-03-economy-depression-recession_N.htm |date=20120628124722 }}, By John Waggoner, [[USA TODAY]], 11/3/2008</ref>]]

德国[[威瑪共和國]]受到了大萧条极大的重击，其中美国对德国的援助贷款因衰退而停止供给。<ref>[http://www.english.uiuc.edu/maps/depression/about.htm About the Great Depression] {{Wayback|url=http://www.english.uiuc.edu/maps/depression/about.htm |date=20081220090243 }}, University of Illinois</ref>失业率飙升，特别是在大城市中，政治转向了极端主义。<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/weimar_depression_1929.htm |title=Weimar Republic and the Great Depression |publisher=Historylearningsite.co.uk |date= |accessdate=2010-09-04 |archive-date=2010-09-13 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100913042803/http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/weimar_depression_1929.htm |dead-url=no }}</ref>1932年，失业率逼近了30%，民众疯狂地支持纳粹党和共产党，两党在当年7月的选举中共同占据了国会的多数席位。<ref>[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/de/de_economic.html Germany – Economic] {{Wayback|url=http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/countries/de/de_economic.html |date=20121111171738 }}, Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).</ref>1932年的[[洛桑會議]]上，德国的战争赔款一案被搁置。此时，德国支付了赔款中的1/8。1933年1月，[[希特拉]]的[[纳粹党]]上台执政，建立了独裁政府，为[[第二次世界大战]]铺垫了道路，该冲突是人类历史上最具毁灭性的战争性灾难。

* Eichengreen, Barry, and Marc Flandreau; ''理論和歷史的黃金標準''1997 [http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=109077144 online version]{{Wayback|url=http://www.questia.com/PM.qst?a=o&d=109077144 |date=20071209042506 }}

* Keynes, John Maynard. "世界經濟展望", ''大西洋''（May 1932）, [http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/flashbks/budget/keynesf.htm online edition]{{Wayback|url=http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/flashbks/budget/keynesf.htm |date=20080514231357 }}

* Gernot Kohler and Emilio José Chaves (Editors) "全球化：批判的觀點" Hauppauge, New York: [http://www.novapublishers.com/ Nova Science Publishers]{{Wayback|url=http://www.novapublishers.com/ |date=20070711194934 }} ISBN 978-1-59033-346-4. With contributions by Samir Amin, Christopher Chase Dunn, Andre Gunder Frank, Immanuel Wallerstein

* Madsen, Jakob B. "在大蕭條期間的貿易壁壘和世界貿易的崩潰", ''南方經濟日報'', Southern Economic Journal 2001, 67 (4), 848–868 [http://www.jstor.org/stable/1061574 online at JSTOR.]{{Wayback|url=http://www.jstor.org/stable/1061574 |date=20160206095718 }}

* [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/07/rare-color-photos-from-the-great-depression_n_674344.html#s124103 Rare Color Photos from the Great Depression]{{Wayback|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/07/rare-color-photos-from-the-great-depression_n_674344.html#s124103 |date=20170321010759 }} – slideshow by ''[[赫芬顿邮报|The Huffington Post]]''

* [http://docs.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/gdphotos.html Franklin D. Roosevelt Library & Museum]{{Wayback|url=http://docs.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/gdphotos.html |date=20200808082204 }} for copyright-free photos of the period

* [http://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/nge/Article.jsp?id=h-3540&sug=y Great Depression in the Deep South]{{Wayback|url=http://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/nge/Article.jsp?id=h-3540&sug=y |date=20080504061425 }}

* [https://web.archive.org/web/20090906070417/http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/site/smithsonian/show_soul_people.do Soul of a People documentary]on [http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/ Smithsonian Networks]{{Wayback|url=http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/site/smithsonian/show_soul_people.do |date=20090906070417 }}

* [http://www.history.com/topics/great-depression The Great Depression]{{Wayback|url=http://www.history.com/topics/great-depression |date=20200726051126 }} at the [[歷史頻道|History Channel]]